Interactive Model

The Future Supply of Pediatric Subspecialists

Welcome to the interactive model where you can investigate and compare different projections of the pediatric subspecialty workforce.

The projections are available at the U.S. Census Division and Region level.

To get started, select the options you are interested in and click Show. You can display multiple lines simultaneously to compare subspecialties - just change your options and select Show again. To remove a line, click the X button to the left of the parameter table.

The area around each projection line represents the confidence interval. The interval will be larger for smaller subspecialist populations and for projections further in the future.

The Help page has tutorials about how to use the visualization. The Methods page has more information about how the projections were made.

To cite, please include the following:

The Program on Health Workforce Research and Policy at the Cecil G. Sheps Center for Health Services Research, the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, and the American Board of Pediatrics Foundation. Projecting the future US pediatric subspecialty workforce: A workforce microsimulation model, 2020-2040. Updated February 2023. https://www.pedsubspecforecast.unc.edu/model. Accessed on: May 6, 2024
Need more detail? The Example of information icon button. buttons have information about each option.
Model Options
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Model Parameter Summary

SubspecialtyTotal or Subspecialists per 100,000 ChildrenHeadcount or Clinical Workforce Equivalent (CWE)Region/DivisionScenario2020 - 2040 (% Change)
1
 All Pediatric Subspecialties (Combined) Total Headcount United States Baseline 23,289 - 39,252.93 (+69%)

Interactive Projections Based on Selected Model Parameters

Children are defined as people 18 years or younger. Doctors in the model are 70 years or younger. Clinical workforce equivalent (CWE) refers to the headcount adjusted by the proportion of time spent in direct clinical or consultative care. This value is self-reported in response to the question "What proportion of your total professional time is spent performing each of the following tasks?" The proportion used for this calculation is from the following category: "Direct and/or consultative inpatient and outpatient care, including patient billing and charting (with or without trainees)."